Nifty50 wrap of the day

NIFTY creates fresh 4 month closing LOWS – as broader markets give way a big way. 8450 on NIFTY stands violated .…

  • The NIFTY opened around the 8500 mark @ 8503.60, marginally UP by around 20 points over Thursday. It was expected that the NIFTY would show some respite from near the crucial SUPPORT zone of 8480-8500; however the very fact that the day HIGH was created within the opening minutes shows the WEAKNESS in the system. Drifting down from beginning, to almost the 8400 mark, the NIFTY showed a dead cat bounce towards the end, given the weekend clearances, the NIFTY shut shop @ 8433.75 DOWN 51.20 points or 0.6%.
  • The NIFTY has now cracked below the immediate SUPPORT level of 8500-8480, on a closing basis. This now brings us to rates between July 8th to July 12th ; when the market was in an optimistic tranche on the advent of MONSOON. So lies the hitch where the supports stand scattered @ 8380 – 8320 in that order. This may even open up the gates till the level of 8088 (200 DMA). The medium term picture may DIP from current SIDEWAYS to BEARISH with a DROP below the 8420 mark (although violated on intraday basis, but held on closing basis). The BULLS can be considered coming back in force only above the 8680 mark; though the path may be difficult around the 8550-8500 mark (the earlier supports).

nifty50 view

3rd Nov 2016 Nifty view : key highlights

NIFTY creates fresh 3 month closing LOWS – lowest since 21.7.2016; stock specific movement still remains flavor of the day. 8480-8500 crucial for overall health …  The NIFTY opened @ 8542.80, GAP-DOWN by around 83 points over Tuesday. Without much doubt it was a full RED day, as NIFTY on the intraday patch still walleted in a tight 45 point range defined by the 8504.85 & 8549.50 (very close to the earlier support of 8550, now turned resistance). The NIFTY shut shop @ 8514.00 DOWN by 112.25 points or 1.3%. This a new 3 month closing LOW, last visited only on 21.7.2016.  The broader indices moved in tandem with the benchmark NIFTY. While the NIFTY MID100 FREE closed DOWN by 2.1% @ 15787.20; the NIFTY SML100 FREE closed DOWN by 1.92% @ 6376.60. The advance decline, in line with the broader indices; remained pegged on the BEAR side, as it stood at 378 advances to 1311 declines. The India VIX shot up a massive 6.75%, to close near the 16.80 mark.  All the sectoral indices, without any exception traded in the RED. The NIFTY PSU BANKS & NIFTY REALTY, mainly the rate sensitives took a cut of almost 3%. On the other hand the NIFTY FMCG & NIFTY METALS were spared the hardships, as they closed down a shade short of the one percent mark.  We now stand at the fag end of the SUPPORT band between 8550-8500. Price-Wise, the momentum seems to once again shift in favor of the BEARS as we stand too close to the level of 8500, and if it gets breached on closing basis, the gates to 8420 may open UP. The medium term picture may DIP from current SIDEWAYS to BEARISH with a DROP below the 8420 mark, that may open UP even till the level of 8083 (200 DMA).On the other hand, the BULLS have last hope only above closing level of 8740 (an extension of the 8680-8720 mark).

23rd July : Two mins Nifty wrap up for the day

A breach of 5260 implies further weakness ahead. The level of 5127 would now be the next support for Nifty.

Nifty opened with a downward price gap and remained deep in the red for the entire session to conclude with a loss of 71 points at 5235. Amongst the sectoral indices the BSE Realty and Oil & Gas indices were the outperformers whereas BSE It and Teck indices lost the most.

The level of 5260 was breached today which induced further downside till 5217. Today’s movement has confirmed a bearish break down of an important trend line and the momentum oscillators have now registered a sell.

Thus on a bounce back Nifty may face severe resistance near 5260 – 5280 range and Nifty may further succumb to selling pressure and come down to the level of 5127 in next few sessions. The trend has now turned weak at least for the short term and a decline till 5127 appears likely.

21stJuly : Two mins Nifty wrap up for the day

Nifty near make or break level.

Nifty opened weak and continued to trade with a negative bias throughout the session to conclude the day with a loss of 0.72% at 5205. Amongst the sectoral indices the BSE Auto and CD indices were the outperformers whereas BSE Bankex index lost the most.

Nifty was unable to clear the resistance of 5260 and opened negative. It traded with a negative bias throughout the session and concluded at 5205, just above the important support of 5190. It is now placed near a make or break level. A move above 5260 would be a positive sign and would ensure higher levels once Nifty sustains above 5300.

On the contrary the level of 5170 is now an important support. A break down below 5170 would ensure further declines till at least 5130. The level of 5090 is an important positional support for Nifty and a trend reversal level.

18th July : Two mins Nifty wrap up for the day

Present upmove may face resistance near 5260. Nifty near make or break level.

Nifty opened negative but found support at lower levels and bounced back to end with a gain of 23 points at 5216. Amongst the sectoral indices the BSE Metal and CG indices were the outperformers whereas BSE HC and Oil & Gas indices lost the most.

Nifty found support near its 200 Day EMA despite the breach of 5190 and bounce back to end with a gain of 23 points at 5216. We had indicated a possibility of a bounce back but the level of 5260 may act as a resistance for Nifty. Nifty may continue to remain under selling pressure till the time it trades below 5300.

The level of 5169 is now an important support. Any breach of this level may induce further sell off till 5127 and lower. Only sustenance above 5300 would indicate a strong upside which may take it to 5400 and higher.

Weekly wrap: Trading strategies

Weekly wrap

Nifty view for the week

Short term uptrend is now threatened as 5240 is breached on the chart. However 5190 is a silver lining for the bulls

Nifty needs to cross 5320 to resume its uptrend, in the absence of which it can come down

to 5165 once it trades below 5190.

Sector Trend Reader

After 5 weeks sustainable uptrend, BSE Sensex took a halt in last week and after forming high of 17,630 reacted up to 17,181 level. The downward price gap on daily chart in the range between 17,342 & 17,467 may provide strong resistance to Sensex if any intraday bounce back is observed. On the downside, 17,100 – 17,000 will act as strong support where 200 – DMA is also located.

Last week all the sector indices closed negative with BSE IT as major loser. Nosector specific outlook in the current week.

Debt Market weekly

10 Year Yield likely to move in the range of 8.05% to 8.15% levels.

Commodity Pick of the week:Copper

Strategy: Buy above 427.20 with stop loss below 423.50 Target 432, 434.