two mins Nifty50 wrap of the day

17th November:

Market fails to sustain at higher levels, as SELLING pressure comes to the fore. NIFTY closes below the 8100 mark for first time since June 2016.…

• The NIFTY opened around the 8105.10 mark, marginally down by around 5 points over Wednesday. The market showed some initial resilience, as NIFTY had a brief touch around the 8150 mark in the first one hour. However it failed to sustain the levels, as selling pressure intensified. What ensued was a systemic LOWER TOP & LOWER BOTTOM pattern, that saw the NIFTY going DOWN to 8060 mark in last half an hour, before closing @ 8079.95 DOWN by 31.65 points or 0.39%.

• Per say, the market continues to drift DOWNWARDS without any real momentum. Thus the dynamics of the market are little changed. we sense one more leg of downside towards 7930 – 7900 levels which coincide with Brexit day low and 50% retracement (6825 – 8968) and is likely to act as a demand zone. As oscillators are placed in oversold territory, a meaningful bounce cannot be ruled out, but in such scenario, the upside would be capped at 8250 – 8300 levels.

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Unusual Day – Expect the Unexpected

The 9th of November turned out to be an unusual day for the Indian markets. Two events have unfolded – The US presidential election outcome and the demonetisation of 500 and 1000 rupee notes. BSE Sensex opened down 1600 points and closed the day with a substantial recovery with a loss of 339 points. The announcement of Donald Trump as US President has put to rest the uncertainty of the result. Now one awaits his economic policy announcements. Sectors to benefit would be Oil and Metals.
India, with the demonetisation of the 500 and 1000 rupee notes will infuse huge amount of funds in the banking system thus having a positive impact on the sector. This will also have an adverse effect on real estate and sectors related to it.
Strategy forward
Markets are expected to remain volatile in the coming month and it is difficult to predict a bottom. We suggest staggered investments in equity and use these expected volatility to your advantage. Fund categories to consider for investment are #Largecap and #MultiCap Funds. An aggressive strategy would be to increase allocation towards #BankingSectorFunds.
Debt allocation: for a short term period one can consider #dynamic funds. For a 3 year plus horizon, allocate monies to #accrual #debt funds.

Two mins Nifty 50 wrap of the day

7th November: 2 mins Nifty50 wrap up of the day

NIFTY GAPS-UP on easing of RISK-OFF. Fails to sustain above the 8500 mark – as broader markets show a dead cat bounce .…

• The NIFTY opened around the 8535.75, GAP-UP by around 100 points over last Friday. The weekend news flow on US presidential elections soothed the nerves as RISK-OFF switched in. However the very fact that NIFTY HIGH was created within the opening minutes of trade indicate the FLUIDITY in the markets. The markets largely traded in a tight 40 point range till last half an hour, when NIFTY saw profit booking setting in & dragging it down below the 8500 mark. To shut shop, NIFTY closed @ 8497.05 DOWN by 63.30 points or 0.75%.
• The NIFTY has now clawed back a bit, above the immediate SUPPORT level of 8500-8480, on a closing basis. However the fact that it has failed to sustain above the 8500 mark, as also closed near the day low; makes it vulnerable to the FLUIDITY of the market (Refer to the LIGHTNESS in positions in the market). This now brings us to rates between July 8th to July 12th ; when the market was in an optimistic tranche on the advent of MONSOON. So lies the hitch where the supports stand scattered @ 8380 – 8320 in that order. This may even open up the gates till the level of 8088 (200 DMA). The medium term picture may DIP from current SIDEWAYS to BEARISH with a DROP below the 8420 mark (although violated on intraday basis, but held on closing basis). The BULLS can be considered coming back in force only above the 8650 mark; though the path may be difficult around the 8550-8620 mark (the earlier supports).

 

Nifty50 wrap of the day

NIFTY creates fresh 4 month closing LOWS – as broader markets give way a big way. 8450 on NIFTY stands violated .…

  • The NIFTY opened around the 8500 mark @ 8503.60, marginally UP by around 20 points over Thursday. It was expected that the NIFTY would show some respite from near the crucial SUPPORT zone of 8480-8500; however the very fact that the day HIGH was created within the opening minutes shows the WEAKNESS in the system. Drifting down from beginning, to almost the 8400 mark, the NIFTY showed a dead cat bounce towards the end, given the weekend clearances, the NIFTY shut shop @ 8433.75 DOWN 51.20 points or 0.6%.
  • The NIFTY has now cracked below the immediate SUPPORT level of 8500-8480, on a closing basis. This now brings us to rates between July 8th to July 12th ; when the market was in an optimistic tranche on the advent of MONSOON. So lies the hitch where the supports stand scattered @ 8380 – 8320 in that order. This may even open up the gates till the level of 8088 (200 DMA). The medium term picture may DIP from current SIDEWAYS to BEARISH with a DROP below the 8420 mark (although violated on intraday basis, but held on closing basis). The BULLS can be considered coming back in force only above the 8680 mark; though the path may be difficult around the 8550-8500 mark (the earlier supports).

nifty50 view

3rd Nov 2016 Nifty view : key highlights

NIFTY creates fresh 3 month closing LOWS – lowest since 21.7.2016; stock specific movement still remains flavor of the day. 8480-8500 crucial for overall health …  The NIFTY opened @ 8542.80, GAP-DOWN by around 83 points over Tuesday. Without much doubt it was a full RED day, as NIFTY on the intraday patch still walleted in a tight 45 point range defined by the 8504.85 & 8549.50 (very close to the earlier support of 8550, now turned resistance). The NIFTY shut shop @ 8514.00 DOWN by 112.25 points or 1.3%. This a new 3 month closing LOW, last visited only on 21.7.2016.  The broader indices moved in tandem with the benchmark NIFTY. While the NIFTY MID100 FREE closed DOWN by 2.1% @ 15787.20; the NIFTY SML100 FREE closed DOWN by 1.92% @ 6376.60. The advance decline, in line with the broader indices; remained pegged on the BEAR side, as it stood at 378 advances to 1311 declines. The India VIX shot up a massive 6.75%, to close near the 16.80 mark.  All the sectoral indices, without any exception traded in the RED. The NIFTY PSU BANKS & NIFTY REALTY, mainly the rate sensitives took a cut of almost 3%. On the other hand the NIFTY FMCG & NIFTY METALS were spared the hardships, as they closed down a shade short of the one percent mark.  We now stand at the fag end of the SUPPORT band between 8550-8500. Price-Wise, the momentum seems to once again shift in favor of the BEARS as we stand too close to the level of 8500, and if it gets breached on closing basis, the gates to 8420 may open UP. The medium term picture may DIP from current SIDEWAYS to BEARISH with a DROP below the 8420 mark, that may open UP even till the level of 8083 (200 DMA).On the other hand, the BULLS have last hope only above closing level of 8740 (an extension of the 8680-8720 mark).