We at GEPL Capital were of the opinion that the level of 5348 would serve as a make or break level for Nifty. This week it did manage to respect the support on a closing basis and we have a seen couple of positive sessions in a row towards the end of the week. Nifty is now placed at 5476. However for a confirmation of further uptrend we need a decisive breach of 5520. Till the time Nifty trades below 5520 the trend continues to remain decisively weak and we remain circumspect of the prospects of further gains. Immediate support level is now placed at 5425, whereas the critical support remains at 5348. A decisive breach of 5348 can trigger a further sell off which can bring it down back to Feb 2011 low of 5177 in next few sessions.

We continue to recommend a cautious approach for any long positions as long as Nifty trades below 5520. In an alternate scenario, a decisive breach of 5520 can avert a sell off situation and we may then explore further bullish possibilities if Nifty does manages to sustain above 5520, however in the absence of such a trigger we continue to maintain a bearish view.

After the severe sell of past week Nifty is very precariously poised near a make or break support level of 5348. A decisive breach of 5348 can trigger a further sell off which can bring the Nifty down back to Feb 2011 low of 5177 in next few sessions. We at GEPL Capital continue to recommend a cautious approach for any long positions as long as Nifty trades below 5605, any bounce back attempt may face severe resistance near 5425 and beyond that 5460 appears as a very difficult level to cross. Only sustenance beyond 5460 can bring in further strength in the immediate term. However the trend appears decisively bearish as long as Nifty trade below 5605.

As for stocks Tata Motors as well as GAIL appear weak on the chart for a downside of three to five percent over the course of next eight to ten sessions.

Nifty closed at 5486 with a marginal gain of 1% comparative to its previous day close. We at GEPL are of the view that ongoing rally is heading towards the mark of 5600. Cross over and sustenance above 5520 will lift up Nifty quickly to the area of 5600. Short term support for Nifty is placed at 5400 and below that 5350. On the higher side resistance is placed at 5520 and above that at 5600.

Regarding sector specific approach, in the near term Capital Goods and Health care seems to out perform the broader indices while Banking and FMCG seems to under perform the broader market.

Short term update on Nifty
Today Nifty closed at 5438 with a loss of 60 points slightly higher than 1% comparative to its previous day close.

On the downward side after a very long period the market has given a close below its major support area of 5450. Now on the downward side the market has got support area of 5350 and 5200. On the higher side market is continuously facing selling pressure in the range of 5600 and above that at 5690.

In our opinion since we have given a close below the important support area of 5450 the market is heading towards a further downside with an appropriate target of roughly around 5200 to 5250 range. During this area some amount of support will come and will able to give some amount of minor bounce back but ultimately the remaining target for the market is 5200 to 5250.

In our view, BSE – Bankex, BSE – Auto and BSE – Consumer Durable will under-perform the broader market while BSE – FMCG will out-perform the broader markets.

Today Nifty closed at 5541 with a minor loss of 10points comparative to its previous day close. We at GEPL are of the view that market is placed at very crucial support of 5450. Breach and sustenance below 5450 may drag down Nifty up to the mark of 5350 in the immediate short term.

Market is continuously facing supply in the area of 5700 and above that at 5750 where its 200-DMA is placed.

Due to the slightly oversold nature of the market in extreme short term, a minor rebound up to the mark of 5700 may come where positional traders can go short with a stop loss of 5775. .

In our view, BSE –Bankex, BSE-Auto and BSE –Realty will out-perform the broader market while BSE Health Care and BSE Consumer Durable will under-perform the broader markets.

Nifty closed at 5550 with a gain of slightly higher than 1.5% comparative to its previous day close. We at GEPL are of the view that market is placed at very crucial support of 5550. Breach and sustenance below 5550 may drag down Nifty up to the mark of 5400 in the immediate short term. Market is continuously facing supply in the area of 5700 and above that at 5750 where its 200-DMA is placed. Due to the slightly oversold nature of the market in extreme short term, a minor rebound up to the mark of 5700 may come where positional traders can go short with a stop loss placing at 5760 and target of 5300-5350.

In our view, BSE –Bankex, BSE-Auto and BSE –Realty will under-perform the broader market while BSE Health Care and BSE FMCG will out-perform the broader markets.

We at GEPL Capital are of the view that market is placed at very crucial support of 5550. Breach and sustenance below 5550 may drag down Nifty up to the mark of 5400 in the immediate short term.

Market is continuously facing supply in the area of 5700 and above that at 5750 where its 200-DMA is placed. Due to the slightly oversold nature of the market in extreme short term, a minor rebound up to the mark of 5700 may come where positional traders can go short with a stop loss placing at 5760 and target of 5400.

In our view, BSE -Bankex, BSE-Auto and BSE -Realty will under-perform the broader market while BSE Health Care and BSE FMCG will out-perform the broader markets.

Since the beginning of the week Nifty was already trading near the upper band of the resistance offered by an important trend line connecting its the recent peaks. Slowly the sellers exerted more control as the week progressed and it finally ended the week with a loss of 2.30% at 5749. Going forward the level of 5730 is an immediate support for Nifty, should it trade below 5730 the selling can intensify further and Nifty may come down to 5632 – Its 200 Day EMA. The entire range of 5632 to 5530 is a critical support for Nifty for next week. If the markets are bullish then this support should not be violated. Else we may see further panic in the market. Thus next week it’s vital that Nifty continues to trade above 5530. On the higher side the level of 5900 would act as a stiff resistance for Nifty, till the time 5900 is conquered decisively the trend remains weak.

Union Bank as well as LIC Housing Finance are couple of stocks that appear weak on the chart for next 8-10 sessions.

Nifty closed at 5868 with a marginal loss of six points on lower side comparative to its previous day closed. We at GEPL are of the view that market is continuously facing major supply in the range of 5920-5950. Close and sustenance above this area may lift up Nifty up to the next crucial level of 6150. On the downward side market has got good support at 5800 and below that 5720(200DMA-5730). Any decline up to the mark of 5800 will provide an opportunity to go long with a stop loss placing at 5700 and target of 6150 for positional traders. Regarding sector specific approach, in our opinion BSE-FMCG and BSE- PSU Banks will out perform the broader indices while BSE-CG and BSE-Consumer Durables will under perform Nifty.